Iowa Gearing Up for Democratic & Republican Caucuses

If you’ve watched any presidential election coverage lately, you’ve no doubt heard a lot about the upcoming Iowa caucuses.  Unlike most voters who will participate in a primary election by casting a ballot early or at a polling location on election day, Democratic and Republican voters in Iowa will meet in person to caucus in all of the state’s 1,681 precincts on Feb. 1.

Here are two videos which help explain the differences between the Democratic and Republican caucuses.

Since this will be the first electoral event in both parties’ presidential nominating contests, much media attention is given to polling in advance of the caucuses not to mention the results on caucus night.

In a review of the RealClearPolitics polling average for December, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has an almost 13 point edge over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 50 to 37 percent.  Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley garners just six percent of the vote.

On the Republican side, Texas Senator Ted Cruz has overtaken businessman Donald Trump to lead the GOP field.  The top five candidates are Cruz (31 percent), Trump (27.4 percent), Florida Senator Marco Rubio (11.6 percent), Dr. Ben Carson (9.2 percent), and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (4.8 percent).

Having said that, it is important not to place too much emphasis on early polling.  According to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, “In Iowa, on average, only 35 percent of voters had come to a final decision before the final month of the campaign.”  In fact, 48 percent of Republican voters made up their minds in the final week leading up to the 2012 caucuses.  On current undecided voters, Silver added, “…the percentage must be even lower now — perhaps something like 20 percent of voters are locked in.”

A more realistic poll of Iowa Republican voters would be as follows:

Following the caucuses, candidates will quickly head to New Hampshire where voters participate in the nation’s first presidential primary on Feb. 9.

For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at ashinoffd@agc.org or (202) 547-5013.