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Boehner’s Retirement and the Race to Succeed Him

Following Pope Francis’ visit to Washington, D.C., Speaker John Boehner sent shockwaves through Capitol Hill by announcing his retirement from the speakership and Congress. First elected in 1991 to represent the 8th congressional district in Ohio, Mr. Boehner rose through the leadership ranks to serve as House Republican Conference chairman, chairman of the House Education and the Workforce Committee, House majority leader, and House minority leader before assuming the top House job. When he retires at the end of this month, he will be the 12th longest-serving speaker.

In a statement from one of his aides, the public learned that Mr. Boehner planned to retire at the end of 2014, but opted to stay following then-Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s unexpected primary defeat. The aide said, “He is proud of what this majority has accomplished, and his speakership, but for the good of the Republican Conference and the institution, he will resign the Speakership and his seat in Congress, effective October 30.”

The campaigns to replace Mr. Boehner are becoming clearer. As expected, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) officially announced his candidacy and is considered the strong favorite. Florida Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), who was a late entry against Boehner earlier this year and a former speaker of the Florida House, is also running to give the conservative coalition a viable candidate. His main problem, however, is redistricting in Florida. If the court-ordered map re-draw is adopted, he is almost certain to lose his House seat in the 2016 elections.

Potential successors mentioned early on included Reps. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), and Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.), but they have all removed their names from consideration. The eventual nominee will then need to secure at least 218 votes in a full House vote to become the 62nd speaker.

In the Majority Leader’s contest, now official with Mr. McCarthy vacating to run for speaker, current Republican Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) announced that she will not attempt to ascend the internal leadership ladder. This leaves Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.) in the battle for the number two position. However, the chatter on Capitol Hill yesterday was all about a private meeting between the speaker and House Select Committee on Benghazi chairman Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.). While neither office is commenting on the meeting, the media is reporting that Mr. Boehner encouraged Mr. Gowdy to seek the No. 2 position due to leadership’s unease with the current options. It’s believed that selecting Mr. Gowdy as majority leader would help shore up Mr. McCarthy with the more conservative members in the caucus. It is unlikely that Gowdy will enter the race since he’s publicly stated that he prefers to remain in his current position as committee chairman.
 
With Mr. Scalise running for majority leader, several House Republicans have announced campaigns to replace him as House majority whip. They include: Chief Deputy Majority Whip Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.), and Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas).

Elections are set for Thursday, Oct. 8. Stay tuned for the results.

For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at ashinoffd@agc.org or (202) 547-5013.