Simonson Says: Population Pops Up in New Spots

Population growth is a major driver of various types of construction over the medium to long term. But where the population grows also matters. Figures released by the Census Bureau on local population growth show it is happening in numerous areas that didn't have a housing boom last decade and, thus, need more construction now. It’s no surprise that Williston, N.D., in the center of the Bakken oil formation, was the fastest growing “micropolitan” area from July 2011 to July 2012, at 9.3 percent. Micropolitan areas contain an “urban cluster” of 10,000 to 49,999 people, and thus are too small to count as metropolitan areas. But the “shale gale” has also brought strong growth to the metro areas of Midland, Texas (4.6 percent, first among all metros) and Odessa, Texas (3.4 percent, fifth), as well as micropolitan areas centered on Junction City, Kan. (7.4 percent, second after Williston); Dickinson, N.D. (6.5 percent, third); Andrews, Texas (4.7 percent, fourth); and Elk City, Okla. (3.5 percent, seventh). All of these areas are likely to keep growing, generating demand for residential, retail, school and infrastructure construction. Other areas that grew fast in 2012 may not produce similar demand for construction, either because they already experienced high growth last decade or the recent boom may not last. For instance, the third- and fourth-fastest growing metros were Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. (3.6 percent) and The Villages, Fla. (3.4 percent), which still have plenty of housing for new residents to move into. Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. (3.7 percent, second) and Jacksonville, N.C. (3.3 percent, sixth) benefited from growth in nearby military bases. But these gains are likely to fade as military spending and the size of the armed forces shrink.