U.S. population increased 9.7% from 2000 to 2010, down from the 13.2% growth rate of the previous decade and the slowest 10-year growth rate since 1930-40, the Census Bureau reported today. Nevada again had the highest growth rate (35%) among states but also the biggest slowdown (31 percentage points less than in 1990-2000). Population declined in Michigan (-0.6%) and Puerto Rico (-2.2%). The District of Columbia had the largest rise in growth rate (10.9 percentage points, going from -5.7% to 5.2% growth); only eight states grew faster than in the prior decade. Slower population growth may mean less demand for many types of construction nationally. But the recession and the return of hurricane-displaced persons to Gulf Coast states in recent years mean decade-long trends in some states may differ from 2009-2010 changes; this data will be released later.
Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment increased in 20 states and D.C. from October to November, fell in 28 states, and held steady in Montana and South Dakota, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. Compared with November 2009, employment increased in 38 states and D.C. (although BLS said only 15 of the increases were statistically significant), decreased in 11 and was unchanged in Alabama. Construction employment increased for the month in 20 states, fell in 29 and was flat in Alaska and D.C., an analysis by AGC showed. Over 12 months, construction employment climbed in 13 states plus D.C. (the largest number of 12-month increases since February 2008), shrank in 36 and was level in Massachusetts. The largest 12-month increases were in Texas (13,400 jobs, 2.4%), Oklahoma (6,100 jobs) and Maryland (4,600 jobs). The biggest percentage gains were in Oklahoma (9.2%), New Hampshire (6.7%, 1,500 jobs), Kansas (4.7%, 2,700 jobs), D.C., (4.6%, 500 jobs) and Maryland (3.2%). The biggest 12-month declines were in California (36,900 jobs, -6.4%), Nevada (16,600 jobs), Florida (12,900 jobs, -3.6%) and Missouri (12,300 jobs). The largest percentage drops were in Nevada (-22.0%), Idaho (-15.5%, 5,100 jobs), Montana (-11.2%, 2,700 jobs) and Missouri (-10.7%). BLS includes mining and logging with construction in D.C., Maryland and six other states to avoid disclosure about industries with few employers.
As frequently happens, McGraw-Hill Construction (MHC) and Reed Construction Data reported sharply different results for the value of construction starts in November, based on data they each collect. Total starts fell 9%, seasonally adjusted, from October, MHC said. “Nonresidential building weakened for the second month in a row, while nonbuilding construction (public works and electric utilities) retreated after its elevated pace in October. Meanwhile, residential building in November showed modest growth. For the first eleven months of 2010, total construction on an unadjusted basis was…down 4% from the corresponding period of 2009….‘Since early 2009, the construction start statistics have shown an up-and-down pattern, essentially leveling off within a set range following an extended three-year decline,’ stated Robert Murray, vice president of economic affairs….‘The pullback in November after October’s slight gain shows that this up-and-down pattern continues, and there’s yet to be evidence that renewed expansion is taking hold. For nonresidential building, the worst of the decline for the commercial structure types has run its course, but the volume of activity remains very weak. The housing sector, after losing momentum during the spring, appears to be edging upward once again, but to this point the pickup has been meager. For the public works sector, this year’s growth for transportation-related work has been offset by weaker activity for the environmental project types. In the near term, the overall economy may be helped by the recent extension of the federal tax cuts, but going into 2011 the construction industry will still face several constraints. These include: restrictive bank lending standards which have yet to ease, fading stimulus support, and further erosion in the fiscal health of states and localities.’”
The value of nonresidential construction starts soared 35% from October’s level and 13% above the November 2009 total, Reed reported on Thursday. Because the Reed data are not seasonally adjusted and “November is a seasonally weak month for construction starts,…the November starts surge is much stronger than the nominal 35% gain,” Chief Economist Jim Haughey explained. “But the gains were unevenly distributed: more than $1 billion each for “hospitals, manufacturing (Nissan battery factory), military, bridges and miscellaneous civil projects. The only significant declines were for retail and highways.” Haughey predicted, “Starts trends are expected to change in 2011. The pipeline of funding appropriated for heavy and institutional projects before the recession or included in stimulus programs is being used up and the pace of new funding is ebbing. By contrast, lending approval for commercial projects will improve significantly. This has already begun for apartments.”
The Architecture Billings Index, a measure of the number of architecture firms that report higher or lower billings compared with the prior month, moved to its highest level in three years in November, 52.0, the American Institute of Architects (AIA) announced on Friday. (A reading of 50 indicates the number of respondents with higher billings equals the number with lower billings.) Firms with residential, institutional, and commercial/industrial practices all had readings close to 50; firms with mixed practices reported a net decline in billings but moved closer to the 50 mark.
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