Simonson Says: Jobs Appear in More Spots But No Pattern Emerges

AGC released analyses in the past week of construction job changes from August 2009 to August 2010 in every state and in 337 metropolitan areas. Although only one-fifth of the states (nine, plus the District of Columbia) and one-sixth of the metro areas (56) had year-over-year job increases, these were the highest totals since the fall of 2008. Further, the severity of recent job losses has been shrinking nearly everywhere. The number of locations with double-digit percentage declines in the past 12 months is far fewer than it was earlier this year. The state job gains were mainly in three clusters, but with no apparent pattern. Three of the states with increases were in New England (New Hampshire, 10 percent; Massachusetts, 3 percent; and Rhode Island, 2 percent). Three were in the Middle Atlantic region (D.C., 4 percent; West Virginia, 3 percent; and Maryland, 1 percent). There was a group of three in the South Central states (Oklahoma, 9 percent; Kansas, 8 percent; and Arkansas, 3 percent). Wisconsin stood alone with a 2 percent rise. Yet, there were neighboring states in each of those regions that had job losses worse than the national average of 5 percent, such as Vermont (14 percent), Delaware (7 percent), Missouri (10 percent) and Minnesota (9 percent). Some of the strongest gains are occurring outside of metro areas, as with the Bakken oil-shale region of western North Dakota and eastern Montana, the Marcellus natural-gas shale in western Pennsylvania, and a number of areas around military base realignment projects or large wind, solar and transmission line installations. Maryland, D.C. and West Virginia are benefiting both from base realignment in Maryland and Virginia (which provides employment to construction workers from West Virginia as well) and from stimulus projects, such as a new headquarters for the Department of Homeland Security. It is likely that job losses will continue to shrink in most locations, with more areas turning positive on a year-over-year basis in the next few months. But so far, no state has exceeded its previous high in construction employment, and it may be another two years or more before that occurs.