News

Economy improves overall but not for nonres construction; jobs shrink in most metros

Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve districts indicate that "economic conditions have generally improved modestly since the last report" six weeks ago, the Fed wrote on Wednesday in the Beige Book, a summary of informal soundings of business conditions, in which districts are referred to by the names of their headquarters cities. "Eight districts indicated some pickup in activity or improvement in conditions, while the remaining four-Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, and Atlanta-reported that conditions were little changed and/or mixed. As for commercial real estate and construction: "Market conditions were reported to have weakened in virtually all districts, with rising vacancy rates, downward pressure on rents, and little, if any, new development. Expectations for 2010 were also quite low. Boston characterized the commercial real estate outlook as 'bleak,' Dallas noted that construction was at 'historically low levels,' and Kansas City described the sector as 'distressed.' Still, some districts noted scattered signs of encouragement: Cleveland and Chicago referenced public-works projects as a source of increased business, Richmond noted signs of increased leasing activity from the health and education sectors, Atlanta indicated a modest pickup in new development projects, Minneapolis noted some recently started hotel and retail development, and San Francisco cited slight improvement in availability of financing for new development." Construction spending in October was virtually unchanged from the revised September total, but down 14% from a year earlier, at a $911 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate, the Census Bureau reported on Tuesday. The September figure had an exceptionally large downward revision of $30 billion (3.2%), to the lowest total since 2002. Private nonresidential construction shrank 2.5% for the month and 21% year-over-year; public construction fell 0.4% in October but rose 4.7% from a year ago; and private residential construction rose 4.4% in October but dropped 24% over 12 months. Developer-financed categories fared badly for the month and year: lodging (hotels and resorts), -5.8% and -45%; nonautomotive retail, -3.3% and -42%; private office, -2.2% and -37%; multifamily, -2.1% and -44%; and warehouse, 1.4% and -46%. Two formerly strong categories turned negative in October: manufacturing, -2.5% and -5.9%; and power, -3.0% and 1.7%. The largest public categories had mixed results: highway and street, -0.3% and 4.7%; and educational, 1.1% and -0.1%. The October figures were buoyed by one-month gains in new single-family, 1.9% and -31%; and improvements to existing single- and multifamily, 8.7% and -7.3%. However, the estimate for improvements has been very unstable; Census revised the September estimate down by $15 billion. Downward revisions to nonresidential estimates reflected cancellations of some projects already underway. Nonfarm payroll employment fell in 361 of 369 metro areas and rose in only eight from October 2008 to October 2009, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday. The unemployment rate was higher in all 372 areas for which data was available. Construction employment increased in only five metro areas: Columbus, Indiana, (400 jobs, 20%); Anderson, Ind. (100 jobs, 6%); Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pennsylvania (600 jobs, 5%); Tulsa, Oklahoma (700 jobs, 3%); and Davenport-Rock Island-Moline, Iowa-Illinois (100 jobs, 1%). Construction employment was unchanged in four areas and fell in 328, led by Reno-Sparks, Nevada (-5,100 jobs, -32%); Kokomo, Ind. (-500 jobs, -31%); and Redding, California (-1,200 jobs, -30%). The largest number of construction job losses occurred in Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Arizona, -33,000; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Georgia, -24,700; and Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., -24,500. There were 1,934 mass layoff events, involving 50 or more workers at one time, in October, not seasonally adjusted, with 193,904 associated initial claims, BLS reported on November 19. Although both figures fell from October 2008, BLS said, "Three of the 19 major industry sectors in the private economy reported program highs in terms of average weekly initial claimants...: construction; wholesale trade; and management of companies and enterprises." Both the rate and the number of nonfatal occupational injuries and illnesses requiring days away from work in private industry decreased 7% from 2007 to 2008, BLS reported on November 24. The rate decreased to 113 per 10,000 full time workers and the number of cases decreased by 80,730. There were 1.1 million cases requiring days away from work in private industry out of 3.7 million total recordable cases as reported by the BLS Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses. Median days away from work-a key measure of severity of the injuries and illnesses-increased for the first time in four years to 8 days in 2008. Among BLS's highlights: "The number of cases for construction laborers decreased 8% from 2007 to 2008 to a total of 31,310, but the rate (383 per 10,000 workers) was unchanged, reflecting a proportionate drop in employment....Carpenters (for whom the number of days-away-from-work cases decreased by 24% from 2007 levels) had fewer than 20,000 injuries and illnesses for the first time since 2003....The construction industry experienced decreases in numbers and rates of days-away-from-work cases from 2007. The number of cases declined by 11% to 120,240 in 2008, and the rate fell 8% to 174 cases of days away from work per 10,000 full-time workers." The consumer price index (CPI) for all urban consumers climbed 0.3%, seasonally adjusted, in October, but fell 0.2% from October 2008, BLS reported on November 18. The CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W), used to adjust many wage contracts in construction and other sectors, dropped 0.3% over 12 months.