The Iowa Caucuses ended in a bit of a surprise. Despite the last ten public Republican contest polls all finding Donald Trump leading the Iowa vote anywhere from one to eight points, it was Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) who claimed first place Monday night with 28 percent preference. Mr. Trump finished a close second with 24 percent, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) stronger-than-expected 23 percent.
It is the latter number that few saw coming. Sen. Rubio had been consistently scoring a third place finish in most polls, but a distant one. Of the final 10 Iowa polls from nine different pollsters, cumulatively conducted during the January 18-31 period, only two forecast Rubio in as formidable a third position as actually occurred.
The Democratic side turned out equally interesting. In their much different system where voters’ choices translate into state delegates for each candidate, it is former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders ending in a virtual tie. The two split the delegate pool almost evenly, with Clinton leading by only four delegates from a pool nearing 1,400.
Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, who scored just eight delegates, suspended his campaign. The same is true for the 2008 and 2012 GOP Iowa Caucus winners, ex-Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former US Sen. Rick Santorum. Mr. Huckabee finished ninth among Republicans with just 2 percent voter support. Mr. Santorum, who beat former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012, came in eleventh. Santorum has since endorsed Rubio.
The Republican turnout was the largest in Iowa Caucus history. The participation factor topped 185,000, far more than the previous record of 121,255 established in 2012. The Democratic system does not report the actual number of raw votes per candidate, instead using only the candidates’ delegate totals.
The Caucus result proved close to what was projected a month ago, meaning Cruz took the state because the system was tailor-made for his strong grassroots campaign style. Expectations for Trump rose during the latter part of January, largely attributable to virtually every public poll suggesting he would finish first.
The fact that no candidate even reached 30 percent, let alone the 50 percent needed to capture the majority of delegates, suggests that yielding a contested Republican convention is certainly a possibility. Now having three candidates with similar strength is another element that potentially makes an eventual deadlock more likely.
Donald Trump, rebounding to finish first in New Hampshire coupled with a strong showing from a candidate such as Governors Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or John Kasich would further cloud the overall political picture. Such a result would make reaching a majority even more difficult for any of the contenders.
The Iowa Caucus met expectations for excitement with two close finishes. The Republican delegate allotment for Iowa is only 30. This means Cruz scored just one more delegate vote than Trump and Rubio. Ms. Clinton amassed 23 delegates to Sanders' 21.
Next comes the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 9.
For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at ashinoffd@agc.org or (202) 547-5013.