Romney Decides Against Third Run

Last Friday, and what came as a surprise for many supporters, Gov. Mitt Romney stated that he will not pursue the White House for a third time.  Much speculation is occurring as to how this development affects the remaining GOP presidential aspirants.  Many believe that the greatest beneficiary of Romney's departure is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, as the impending battle between these two principals was commonly labeled as a fight for the heart of the Republican establishment.  But, such may not be so readily apparent.  Reports show that Mr. Romney, on the night of his announcement, actually met with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and not Bush.  Though it is not known what Romney and Christie specifically discussed that evening, it is near certain that the conversation was not about helping Mr. Bush. Romney's decision not to run is likely a positive one for the former Massachusetts Governor and Republican presidential nominee, himself.  Though leading in virtually every early GOP poll, Mr. Romney's margin was far below what one would expect for a reigning presidential nominee.  In most surveys, he never broke 30 percent, meaning seven out of every 10 Republicans polled were consistently choosing someone other than Romney. Irrespective of how Romney's decision affects the eventual Bush and Christie campaigns, his absence from the field causes a void that some of the newcomer candidates hope to fill. While it is likely that Bush will assume the early polling lead post Romney's departure, his advantage is likely to be tepid.  No candidate seems to feel that Bush's presence is so daunting to cause he or she to back away – Bush in the race is clearly not why Romney declined to run – thus, we can continue to expect a very large number of Republican candidates.  This means a very fragmented field where no one might gain a clear advantage throughout the nomination season.  If so, then an open Republican convention becomes a distinct possibility. For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at (202) 547-5013 or ashinoffd@agc.org.