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Data Digest: More states post job gains; Reed says Feb. starts vary; governments trim office space

Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment increased in February in 35 states, decreased in 14 states and the District of Columbia, and was unchanged in Hawaii, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. Compared with February 2010, employment rose in 44 states plus D.C. and shrank in six states. Construction employment rose for the month in 29 states plus D.C., dropped in 18 states, and was stable in New Hampshire, Vermont and Wyoming, an analysis by AGC showed. Over the last 12 months, construction employment increased in 18 states plus D.C. (the largest number with rising year-over-year construction employment since February 2008) and slipped in 31 states. Nationally, construction employment edged down 0.4% over the year. All of these results suggest job losses have bottomed out, but one- and 12-month comparisons in February are often distorted by weather conditions that can delay or accelerate project starts and hiring in any of the months being compared. In this case, hiring was likely delayed in January 2011 as many states experienced extra-harsh conditions, with a catch-up adding to February 2011 totals. The largest 12-month percentage gains in construction jobs through February were in D.C., 15.8% or 1,500 jobs (including logging and mining, which BLS combines with construction in D.C. and six states to prevent disclosure of data about industries with few employers); Tennessee, 8.6% or 8,700 combined jobs; and Pennsylvania, 6.8% or 14,300 construction-only jobs. The steepest losses were in Nevada, -9.4% or -5,900 jobs (Nevada’s smallest year-over-year construction job loss since February 2008); Wisconsin, -9.0% or -8,700 jobs; and Georgia, -8.4% or -12,800 jobs. The value of nonresidential construction starts in the first two months of 2011 slipped 4.1% from the same months a year ago, Reed Construction Data reported on March 22, based on data it collected. “Individual month of February starts were 5.7% below January starts but up [about 5% after seasonally adjustment and up] 0.8% from last February, wrote Reed Chief Economist Jim Haughey. “Seasonally adjusted starts have been slightly above the 2010 monthly average for five months….The recent rise in starts is consistent with the small gain in construction spending (excluding the bad weather impact), higher business and consumer confidence and the improved willingness of lenders to invest in commercial real estate. [In California,] nonresidential construction is faring much better than the state economy and the state budget. [In Texas,] construction continues to underperform the economy.” “Smaller government means less demand for office space, and that is acting as a drag on the recovery of the commercial real estate market,” the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. “The biggest impact is likely to come on state and local levels. The states of Illinois, Missouri and Kansas recently hired brokerage firm Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. to reduce real-estate costs, and other states, from California to Florida to South Carolina, are examining ways to pare back their use of space, brokers said….Brokers and investors expect government demand to slow down. Research firm Reis Inc. predicts occupied office space in Washington [D.C.] will increase by one million square feet this year and about 800,000 square feet next year, compared with a jump of 2.8 million square feet in 2010. The New York City government has vacated 380,000 square feet since last year when Mayor Michael Bloomberg launched a push to move out of 1.2 million square feet of city-leased space by 2014…Florida’s portfolio of leased office space, at 8.3 million square feet in 2008, has shrunk about 5% since then, said Ann Duncan, president of Vertical Integration, a Tampa firm that advises governments, including the state of Florida, on real-estate use. She predicts another decline of roughly 500,000 square feet this year.” “As of the fourth quarter of 2010…, the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas were seeing widespread and steady growth in economic output but only slow and inconsistent improvement in the labor market,” Howard Wial and Richard Shearer of the Brookings Institution reported in releasing their quarterly MetroMonitor on March 14 (www.brookings.edu). “Only 14 large metropolitan areas had at least three quarters of consecutive job growth during 2010. Austin, Boston, Charleston, and Minneapolis-St. Paul had job growth in every quarter of 2010. Allentown, Colorado Springs, Denver, Hartford, Orlando, and San Antonio had job growth in each of the last three quarters of 2010 following job losses in the first quarter. Augusta, Oklahoma City, Virginia Beach, and Washington gained jobs in each of the first three quarters of the year but lost jobs in the last quarter….For the first time since the first quarter of 2010, all of the 100 largest metropolitan areas had growth in output in the fourth quarter….More than half of the 100 largest metropolitan areas had made a complete output recovery by the fourth quarter of 2010. Fifty-five large metropolitan areas had recovered their pre-recession levels of output by the third quarter. All but six of these metropolitan areas had output growth in all four quarters of 2010.” Sustained economic and job growth are both important underpinnings to demand for construction. State personal income rose an average 3.0% in 2010 after falling 1.7% in 2009, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Wednesday. State personal income growth ranged from 0.3% in Nevada to 4.2% in New Mexico. Inflation, as measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, increased to 1.7% in 2010 from 0.2% in 2009. Earnings rose in 15 out of 17 industries. “Two industries, construction and real estate, continued to decline in 2010. The 4.8% decline in construction brought earnings in that industry to its lowest level since 2001,” BEA noted. In the fourth quarter, seasonally adjusted net earnings rose 0.68 percentage points overall but fell 0.19 points in construction.